25 November 2022 13:10 (UTC)
All options were on the table in Abu Dhabi – but picking the correct one was not easy.
Formula 1's strategic battles tend to be at their best when there’s no obvious right answer. In Abu Dhabi, we put Lando and Daniel on very different strategies but both resulted in the right outcome.
With all manner of options on the table, the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix provided something of a handy starter guide to strategy for newer fans of F1, delivering everything you could hope to learn in just one race. Presented by DataRobot, we spoke to Randy Singh, Director of Strategy and Sporting, to help us understand why.
The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix left everyone at the MTC heading into off-season in a positive frame of mind: fastest lap, the three fastest pit-stops and a double-points finish are the way to head off - quite literally - into the sunset. We also made good strategy calls - and in a race where the stars aligned to put every strategic variable in play, that wasn’t an easy thing to do…
• Clean start for both drivers. Medium tyres. Lando gains a place for P6, Daniel loses one for P14. • Lap 15. Lando commits to a two-stop, pitting for Hard tyres, emerges P12. • Lap 19. Daniel boxes for Hards, emerges P18 • Lap 42. Lando makes another stop, taking a second set of Mediums, emerges P7. • Lap 44. Lando sets the fastest lap of the race. • Chequered flag. Lando finishes P6, Daniel P9.
Lando Norris | Daniel Ricciardo | |
Starting position | P7 | P13 |
End of first lap | P6 | P14 |
Finishing position | P6 | P9 |
Speed trap | 316km/h (19th fastest) | 324km/h (13th) |
First pit-stop stationary time | 2.32 (1st) | 2.33 (2nd) |
Second pit-stop stationary time | 2.35 (3rd) | |
Fastest lap | 1:28.391 (1st) | 1:30.785 (18th) |
Pre-event, the expectation was for a one-stop race but as practice went on, it became apparent that degradation was high, and thus teams prepared to run two-stop races on the harder compounds.
“Going into the weekend we – and probably most teams – were thinking it would be a one-stop race of Something>Hard, but degradation was much higher in practice than we were expecting, which meant we had to reassess how we thought it would play out,” says Randy. “It moved much more towards a question between one and two stops after Friday’s running.”
The only team moving forward into qualifying with a traditional one-stop 5-1-1 [5 Soft, 1 Medium, 1 Hard] tyre allocation was AlphaTauri, with the rest of the field going either 4-2-1 [Us, Mercedes, Williams, Aston Martin, Alfa Romeo, Haas] or 4-1-2 [Ferrari, Alpine]. The other option was to sit on the fence and split the strategy, which is where Red Bull went.
Learning across the three sessions wasn’t entirely conclusive, and the team went into the race without a firm intention for either driver. “We were definitely open-minded at the start of the race, still unsure if it would be a one or two-stop,” says Randy. “Of course, what happened was that it proved more sensible to have a one-stop for Daniel and two for Lando.”
The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix was less eventful than has been common in the recent past. Without Safety Cars or VSCs, the strategies all played out in the manner intended, without mid-race corrections. Lando got a good start and moved ahead of George Russell for P6, but given the pace advantage of Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes, this was always likely to be a temporary improvement. He soon dropped back to P7, but began to pull away from a squabbling midfield trio of Esteban Ocon, Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso.
Lando swapped his starting Medium tyre for Hards on lap 15, and then a second set of Mediums on lap 42. The only cars he had to pass on track were Valtteri Bottas and Kevin Magnussen, both of whom had started on the Hard tyre and were running long opening stints.
Daniel went for the other option, running a one-stop race. He pitted on Lap 19 and was able to bring his Hard tyres in gently, passing backmarkers in the DRS zones but also making gains on cars that would have to pit again.
The final quarter of his race was defined by a battle against Sebastian Vettel, who ran a similar one-stop strategy, but pitted six laps later, and had fresher tyres at the end of the race. Daniel was able to hold off his former teammate until the flag - and after crossing the line they exchanged a wave for a battle well-fought.
As we touched upon earlier, the race presented in microcosm pretty much everything you might hope to know about F1 strategy. There were different tyre allocations and a mix of one and two stop races, undercuts attempted and drivers going long. There were drivers pushing and drivers saving. Our cars managed to cover most of these bases all by themselves.
Lando’s two-stop race was almost a case of taking the fastest route to the flag irrespective of other cars – but coloured by the need to cover Alpine’s Esteban Ocon, who was the car behind for most of the race. In each of the first two stints, Lando built an advantage of around five seconds to guard against the undercut, and pitted the lap after Ocon – though the calculations were not entirely straightforward.
“It was a bit more complicated than it looked, because Ocon had two sets of Hard tyres, which conferred a potential advantage,” says Randy. “We decided to use our single set of Hard tyres in the middle stint, as that would give us a nicer middle stint and a little more flexibility at the end of the race.
“For the second stop, we might have waited a lap or two longer to box, to give Lando a shorter final stint on the Medium compound against Ocon’s Hard tyre – but it’s a question of weighing up trades. By pitting early, and with a larger gap to Ocon, that allowed Lando to use that gap and bring the tyres in gently, rather than having to push immediately.
"Additionally, we knew that staying out would cost us some time as we were about to be passed by Russell. We also wanted to guard against Ocon potentially having a stronger undercut than we were expecting.”
Daniel’s race was complicated by a grid penalty that meant, after making it through to Q3, he started P13. You do, however, play the hand you’re dealt, and in this instance, Daniel was able to benefit from being behind his direct competition, able to respond to their strategies with something different.
“We could deviate because of where Daniel was,” says Randy. “As the last car in the group, we could see what others were doing and extend our first stint. That can only go so far, however, and with Pierre Gasly approaching our pit window, it made sense to pit when we did and cover him. It wasn't necessarily clear at that point Daniel was on a one-stop but the way the race played out meant it never got to a point where it made sense for him to stop again.”
Daniel’s task after the first stop was twofold, with twin aims not necessarily complementary: he had to push to pass cars on track, while keeping his tyres fresh enough to maintain pace at the end of the race. “We had confidence the tyre would hold up – but we always had the option of adding a stop, either for a Medium or a Soft tyre if it didn't,” says Randy.
There’s nothing unusual in the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix being a mix of one and two stop strategies. The oddity in 2022 comes from teams, with a full season of data to study, being unsure of the right direction to take.
This is indicative of the huge sea-change caused by the 2022 aerodynamic reboot, and Pirelli’s new tyres compounds designed for the 18-inch wheels. While strategy is never a sure thing, 2022 has been a voyage into the unknown. “And that’s been good for the racing,” concludes Randy.
“2023 should be a little easier – but hopefully not too much. This year has been very challenging – but that’s what makes it fun!”
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