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The Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya is a good place to start from Pole. It had been 20 years since our last win in Spain, 25 since our last 1-2, and on both occasions, we had started from the front of the grid.

In fact, pre-2025, only five polesitters from the last 34 Grands Prix here had failed to win in Spain, if they’d finished the race. Looking purely at the statistics, it suggests that starting on Pole in Barcelona has a better success rate than in Monaco.

The competing narrative, however, is that, in modern times, this is a multi-stop, high-degradation race, and starting position matters less than good race pace. The undercut is powerful but transient, surpassed by a commanding tyre delta and finding the fastest route to the flag.

The strategists refer to the latter as a deterministic race, the ultimate rewards of which come from delivering the best pace from lights to flag, rather than reaction to what your rivals do during the race. It’s easy to say, difficult to do – especially when there’s a very quick and highly motivated Max Verstappen big in the mirrors, running a different strategy, laying temptation in your path.

In Barcelona, the team stuck to their pre-race conviction and delivered the one-two finish, opting against a more reactive approach. It played out perfectly. Here, we’ll unpick why they made that decision and why it proved to be the right choice. 

How teams expected the race to unfold

Having analysed Friday’s long-run performance, Pirelli’s pre-race sims suggested a two-stop race, sticking to the pattern of 2024’s Spanish Grand Prix, with the Soft>Medium>Soft combination being the fastest way to the flag, and other two-stop strategies falling into place behind it.

The Hard tyre was unfancied because of its low grip: the cars would slide around more with it fitted, leading to the unusual situation of it degrading just as quickly as a Medium or Soft tyre while delivering slower lap-times. This largely ruled out a one-stop race.

That said, Pirelli believed a two-stop including a Hard tyre stint would be preferable to a three-stop, if degradation was higher than expected. The team, however, were a little more open-minded to either possibility.

Why we started on new Soft tyres

Through practice, the race pace of the MCL39 had looked marginally stronger than that of our rivals – but Lando, like Oscar, also had the advantage of starting on a new Soft tyre. Like Verstappen and Russell, they had saved a fresh set for the race by limiting the number of runs they did in Qualifying. Unlike the Red Bull and Mercedes drivers, we’d elected to play that card from the start.

“We considered all the options, but with this being the second-longest run down to Turn 1 of the year, we decided to use it at that start,” says Racing Director Randy Singh. “We thought that we had a quick car, so maximising our chances of staying first and second was a good idea.

“We thought Verstappen and Russell might start on the used Soft and keep the new one for later, and we did consider that – but ultimately, prioritising good positions in the first stint was better for us. It also gave us the potential to go longer in the first stint – as we did with both cars. I think it would have been tougher to do that on a used Soft.”

Oscar made a clean getaway and immediately opened a gap, but Lando was embroiled in a three-way fight with Max Verstappen and George Russell that left him P3 coming out of Turn 1, behind Verstappen. Lando, armed with fresher tyres, dropped back a couple of seconds to protect his tyres, then, once given the word that they were in, began to gently close up. He was in DRS range by Lap 9, and made a clean pass into Turn 1 on Lap 13.

Two stops or three?

Immediately after being passed, Verstappen dived for the pit lane. This was realistically too early for a two-stop race, and suggested the Dutchman was going for three. Such was the power of the undercut in Barcelona, Lando had no opportunity to respond. Had he pitted the following lap, he would have come out behind. It settled any doubts about his strategy, confirming the inclination to go long.

Oscar in front had enough of a lead that he could have covered Verstappen but ultimately the team decided to stick with Plan A. This was to run the deterministic race and pursue the strategy that was fastest to the flag.

“We knew the race would be fairly deterministic, as it was last year, and so when Verstappen pitted early, we let him go and tried to perform a better strategy to beat him, says Randy.

“Max does a really good job, really pushing the three-stop stint and he gets close, because his pace is very good after the first stop – but for us, it made sense to do a two-stop. It was quicker, we’d maintain track position for longer, and then we could cover Verstappen at the final stop.” 

Start the clock

Out of necessity, the middle stint on the Medium tyre had to be a long one, to ensure the final stint on the used Soft didn’t demand too much of that tyre. The car is obviously kinder on its rubber in that final stint, because the fuel load has come down – but there are limits.

After Verstappen made his second stop on Lap 29, Oscar and Lando were back to the front – but not necessarily in clean air: they were encountering backmarkers and the theme of the middle stint was making their way through traffic without over-stressing the tyres, and without losing time to Verstappen. With everyone having one more stop to make, it was largely a question of locking in the positions.

The other factor to consider, however, was the race of Charles Leclerc. The Ferrari driver had gone a different way on strategy, keeping two sets of Medium tyres for the race. He made his second – and presumptive final – stop on Lap 40. The goal for Lando and Oscar was to run as long and as far as they could while keeping Leclerc outside their pit window.

“This starts the clock,” said Race Engineer Tom Stallard to Oscar, after informing him of Leclerc’s stop. Eventually, however, it was Verstappen that pulled the pin first, pitting on Lap 47, and attempting the undercut from five seconds behind Lando, but with Lando about to encounter traffic.

Lando followed a lap later on Lap 48 and narrowly retained his P2, with Oscar covering both of them off the following lap to maintain his lead. Everyone had made all their scheduled stops, and we had both track position and slightly younger tyres. That should have been game over…

Navigating the uncontrollables

When strategists plan, Race Control laughs. On Lap 55 the Safety Car was deployed to cover the recovery of Kimi Antonelli’s stricken Mercedes.

With enough distance to run and the tyre delta between a fresh and used tyre likely to be huge, everyone dived for the pit lane. Oscar and Lando double-shuffled but Lando was able to stay ahead of Verstappen.

Five laps later when racing resumed, both drivers had the tyres in the red at the restart, but got away from the pack cleanly, leaving any chaos a long way behind them.

“I think without the Safety Car, we’d have finished comfortably in front ahead of Max - if he had fitted used Soft tyres - probably, with a bigger margin than we did with the Safety Car, which ruined some of our gains and reset the tyres,” says Randy.

Oscar eventually crossed the line two seconds ahead of Lando, meaning that, yes, the driver on Pole had won in Barcelona once again, but equally, the fastest strategy had proven the right one, rather than a more reactive approach. 

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