Welcome to The Briefing, where you can get a jumpstart on the Japanese Grand Prix with our guide to the key topics.

Every race weekend, we’ll speak to one of our engineers to discuss the key talking points ahead of the upcoming Grand Prix and simplify them so that you can dive straight into the action with a better idea of what to expect and what you should be looking out for.  

This week, powered by Google Cloud, we spoke to Andrew Jarvis, where he discussed the impact of racing in Japan in Spring instead of in Autumn, delved into our possible race strategies and explained why teams might look to prioritise one of Qualifying or the race.

1. We’re expecting to adopt a similar strategy to Australia

In terms of tyres, in many respects, we’re in a similar position to what we had in Australia. We’re expecting a two-stop race, biased towards the harder tyres, to be a very strong strategy choice this weekend – but we’re not sure if we’ll favour the Hard or Medium.

In either eventuality, it does likely mean going into Qualifying with only four sets of Soft tyres. In Australia, we were able to get through Q1 and Q2 using a single set in each session, which left us two sets for Q3. That seems to have quite a big benefit at the moment in terms of driver learning, so the ideal scenario would be to do that again – but it’s a different circuit, with different demands, and we’ll need to learn what the Soft tyres are capable of delivering across multiple runs.

In all of this, we’ll be analysing our own performance across practice while also keeping an eye on what everyone else is doing, to see if our competitors are thinking along similar lines. We don’t want to be too far out of bed with them.

It is a tough circuit for the tyres, and thus, we have the C1, C2 and C3 that we had in Bahrain. Like Bahrain, Suzuka has older tarmac, which is more weathered than the last two circuits we’ve visited, and that affects the degradation mechanism. It’s the more ‘normal’ thermal degradation this week, not the degradation aggravated by graining that we saw in Albert Park. We’re not expecting to suffer graining here – unless it’s colder than forecast.

2. Will racing in Japan in Spring instead of Autumn affect us?

Obviously, we’re used to coming to Suzuka towards the end of the season, and being here in April is something new – but in terms of temperature, Spring or Autumn doesn’t look like having a big impact on our plans.

That said, we could easily see rain this weekend. What’s interesting about this is that we haven’t run the MCL38 in the wet at all. There’s a prospect of dry practice with the rain coming in for the race – or Qualifying and the Grand Prix. Not much to do about that but something to keep in mind.

One other weather factor to deal with is the wind. And specifically, the wind direction. We’re near the coast here and, depending on the time of day, face either a headwind or tailwind through the Esses. When we have the headwind, there’s a lot more downforce, which makes the car quicker – but it loses time elsewhere on the track, and vice-versa with a tailwind.

The trade-off is such that it doesn’t really need considering in your downforce choices – but it has a big impact on the drivers’ feeling in the car, the lines they take, and consequently how the tyres wear. Last year, the wind switched by 180 degrees between FP1 and FP2 and it really altered how the car felt – so it’s something Lando and Oscar will be very aware of this year.

3. Deciding whether to prioritise Qualifying or the race

There’s definitely downforce questions to be answered today, because Suzuka always presents choices. We have a choice of the rear wing that ran in Bahrain, or the one used in Jeddah and Melbourne. Between them, with various beam wings and gurney flaps, we cover the range – but it isn’t obvious which way to go.

Overtaking is tough in Suzuka, and a qualifying bias often makes you want to add a little bit more downforce to have better performance across a single lap. On the other hand, with only one DRS zone (there were four in Australia) there’s an urge to take downforce off – because you can’t rely on opening the flap on every straight. We’ll try a few different options across practice and, again, take a look at what other people are doing.

Stiffness levels are a question as well. Suzuka is predominantly a high-speed track with the hairpin and chicane being the only low-speed corners, and thus set-up tends to be biased towards those high-speed aspects, pushing up your roll- and rear-heave stiffnesses.

On the other hand, the chicane at the end of the lap is really, really important for raceability, because right after it, you have the one and only DRS straight. To be strong through there, you have to use the kerbs, and they’re very high. You want the car set-up to have a good exit from the chicane, and to do that, you want reduced stiffnesses to ride those kerbs. You can’t have both!

It’s one of those situations where the simulation data tends to conflict with experience. The sims will push us towards higher stiffnesses, but they’re not looking at raceability to the same extent the drivers will. High stiffnesses will be better here for ultimate lap-time – but you can’t use that pace if you’re being overtaken or stuck behind other cars. Something to be explored.

McLaren Racing leverages Google Cloud AI to gain a competitive edge by visualising race data to provide real-time insights, and creating efficiencies across processes and resources.