After practice in Jeddah, there was a feeling of indifference around the paddock: degradation looked low, overtaking was going to be difficult, and everything pointed to a one-stop race not too dissimilar to what we saw two weeks ago at Suzuka. And while it’s never a terrible thing to be compared to Suzuka, this year it didn’t produce the most stimulating of Grand Prix.

What we got in Saudi, however, was something rather more enlivened. But why? And how did we capitalise on it?

A first-lap penalty for Max Verstappen and an alternative strategy from Lando changed the complexion of the race, raised the stakes, and added further credence to the Jeddah Corniche Circuit's growing reputation as a track where the racing really is lights-to-flag.

What we expected

Overtaking has been difficult in previous races in Jeddah, and so Pirelli made a concerted effort to add an element of strategic uncertainly into proceedings by moving a step softer in their tyre allocation. It didn’t particularly work out as hoped, with high-fuel runs during practice suggesting both the Medium and Hard compounds were good race tyres. The one-stop strategy looked like the best way to the flag, with the Medium>Hard race looking quickest. It had an optimum pit window between laps 16-22, though with degradation expected to be low, going earlier or later wouldn’t necessarily carry a huge penalty.

While every driver, except Gabriel Bortoleto, had retained an extra set of Hard or Medium tyres, this looked more like an insurance policy against a Red Flag or an awkwardly-timed Safety Car, than a genuine elective strategy option. The most likely alternative strategy was to reverse the one-stop, go Hard>Medium, with the optimum stop window between laps 28-34.

How the start set up an exciting race

The top nine starters, including Oscar in P2, all went for the standard approach, fitting a new Medium tyre at the start. Lando in P10 was the first driver to deviate, joined by Isack Hadjar (P14), Lance Stroll (P16), and Nico Hülkenberg (P18) in starting on a Hard. No one started on Softs.

There was an early Safety Car as Jeddah maintained its reputation for a first-lap collision. This moved Lando up to P8, while Esteban Ocon, Jack Doohan, and Bortoleto at the back all pitted off the Medium tyre onto a Hard. So low was the degradation that this felt like an attempt by them to complete the race without another stop - something Ocon and Bortoleto succeeded in doing, though without huge success.

Attention, however, was more on what happened at the front. A rocket start from Oscar got him alongside Max Verstappen, and on the inside line. Verstappen took to the run-off to retain the lead, and was penalised five seconds. At the restart, this left Oscar in a curious position of being P2 on the road, but with the presumptive lead of the race…

Oscar’s route to victory

Verstappen’s penalty was useful to Oscar in ways beyond the obvious. Two weeks ago, Max put in the Qualifying lap of a lifetime to take Pole position. It turned out to be the lifetime of a mosquito, though, because he did it again in Jeddah, with another stomping lap on Saturday.

Under other circumstances, he may have tried to keep the field tightly bunched, to prevent Oscar having clean air to pit into, and thus scotching the opportunity for an undercut. As it was, with a slow pit stop in his future, Verstappen’s best chance of a good finish was to put some distance between himself and the chasing pack. Oscar went with him, and by Lap 18, they had five seconds on George Russell in P3.

Staying with Verstappen carried a cost for Oscar, however. Following in the dirty air was taking a toll on his tyres, and he started to fall back. This compelled him to pit almost as soon as any space appeared behind. He came in on Lap 19, the first of the leaders to box, and he came out in P6, in a six-second gap between Lewis Hamilton and Carlos Sainz.

He couldn’t afford to get stuck behind Hamilton, and so put in a big move to pass the Ferrari driver on track, and when Verstappen pitted two laps later, Oscar was ahead by three seconds. He then pegged his pace to Verstappen’s and held that gap to the end of the race.

Lando’s remarkable recovery

Lando had a very fast car in Jeddah - but from P10 on the grid was going to struggle to demonstrate it. Despite three DRS zones, Jeddah isn’t the easiest circuit on which to overtake, and the margins between the top teams at the moment are tiny. The team, therefore, gave him the reversed Hard>Medium strategy. This had the twin advantages of hopefully giving him clean air when the Medium starters pitted, plus a tyre delta at the end of the race with which to attack. The drawbacks would be inferior grip at the start, and reduced flexibility with an early Safety Car or Red Flag.

Lando got a good start and held his own off the line against the Medium-shod cars around him. He did well to avoid getting caught up in a collision between Yuki Tsunoda and Pierre Gasly and gained two places. The field spread was low, but enough to ensure there wasn’t a DRS train running. He was able to attack and pass first Carlos Sainz and then Lewis Hamilton, once they lost DRS protection. By the time he caught Kimi Antonelli, Oscar had triggered the cascade, and he was not held up. Of the group ahead of Lando, only Charles Leclerc stayed out. Once the Monegasque pitted on Lap 29, Lando had the lead of the race, and enough life left in his tyres to push on.

The overcut had taken Lando well-clear of Antonelli, and his targets now were George Russell and - perhaps - Leclerc. While he, on old rubber, was matching Russell’s times on a much younger set of Hard tyres, there was a strong incentive to keep him going. This would allow him to take advantage of any Safety Cars, but more realistically, maximise the power of the tyre advantage when he did stop.

Things became a little tricky for the team when Oscar started to close in on his team-mate. Lando wasn’t going to hold Oscar up, but in the dirty air, Oscar would still take a bit more life out of his tyres than was ideal.

At the same time, there wasn’t really an opportunity for Lando to back off and let Oscar through, without compromising his own race. He got the call to go to 100 per cent pace, and pulled the trigger on Lap 34, with Oscar two seconds behind, emerging P5. He had a seven-second gap to Russell and 15 laps in which to make use of his new Medium tyre, which was just about optimum for pushing on that compound. He caught and passed Russell on Lap 41, but couldn’t quite get on terms with Leclerc.

The result

It was, ultimately, a very good day at the office… Oscar won for the third time in five races, while Lando recovered to fourth on a track known for its lack of overtaking opportunities, only narrowly missing out on third but still bringing home a strong haul of points for our Championship charge. Our strategy was effective in regards to the result, but also played its part in making the race a little bit more exciting than anyone was really expecting.

“Both races played out pretty much as we had expected and hoped for,” says Randy Singh, Racing Director, Strategy and Sporting. “With Lando, the alternative strategy worked well to find him clear air and move him up the field, even if Leclerc was just out of reach at the end.

“With Oscar, we timed the stop well to take advantage of Max’s five second time penalty, to take the lead, which Oscar did a great job of then keeping.”

Learn how FxPro combines speed, innovation and precision to drive performance in financial markets.